November 5, 2006
By Neville Watson
I appreciate this opportunity to give an update on Iraq. Because of my interest in Iraq and the people I met when I was there, I have kept myself pretty much up to date on the situation and appreciate the opportunity of sharing my reading, research and thinking with you.
Let me now say what I always say when talking about Iraq
(1) I don’t expect you to agree with me. I have no desire to convince you of the validity of my ideas. I want only to share them with you.
(2) I am no expert on Iraq. Because I was in Iraq before, during and after the war doesn’t make me an expert on Iraq. I did not go to Iraq to become an expert. My 11 year grand daughter summed up the reason when she wrote in a school essay “My grandpa has gone to Baghdad to comfort the Iraqis while the Americans bomb them.” I went, as Bonhoeffer would say, to participate in the suffering of God. In the context of this morning’s sermon, I went there to pray. I went because there comes a time when it is better to be a victim rather than an accomplice, when the issues are so clear to you that you would rather be in the country where the bombs are dropping rather than in the country responsible for the bombing. At the service before I left the Minister with whom I am associated blew out the candle, handed it to me and said “Go and light this candle in Iraq. Be our man in Baghdad.” And this I tried to do. But this doesn’t make me an expert!
Having said that, where you stand does determine what you see, and having been there for some months before the bombing, having been there during the bombing, and six months after the bombing, did give me some understanding of the situation – not a lot, but a damn sight more than many armchair experts.
If it were possible I would have sent a postcard to President Bush and Mr Howard. It would have had only four words on it “Wishing you were here!”
Now for a summary of the situation in Iraq today
It is variously described as “a disaster”, “a helluva mess”, “a catastrophe”, “a failure” and “a cause celebre for Jihadists”. These are not my words.
“A failure” are the words of Alberto Fernandes a senior US State Dept official
“A helluva mess” are the words of James Baker a former US Secretary of State who is heading a committee on how to get out of the mess
“A catastrophic blunder” are the words of former Australian foreign affairs chief Richard Woolcott
“A disaster” are words used by 95% of commentators, the most recent being the conservative columnist Andrew Sullivan who when President Bush said “I am pleased with the progress we are making in Iraq” responded ” … this man has lost his mind. No one can look at the Iraq war, even if you were for it as I was … and say it has gone well. It has been a disaster.”
“A cause celebre for jihadists” This was the description used in the leaked US intelligence report (3/9/06) The 16 intelligence agencies involved agreed that the war in Iraq is “breeding a deep resentment in the Muslim world and cultivating supporters for the global jihadist movement”
On Friday we saw a leaked Pentagon chart showing the position in Iraq sliding into chaos and the words “violence is at an all time high and spreading geographically”. The chart was dated 18th October and some of the media had shots of Mr Bush saying one day later that everything is all right and that we are succeeding in Iraq. Only one man is saying everything is OK and he ceased being convincing many moons ago. The people of America are now aware that they have been and are being lied to. Only one in five Americans believe that the US is winning the war in Iraq.
And to bring us right up to the moment. Today it was reported that 83 bodies have been found in the last 36 hours and that 100,000 Iraqis are fleeing Iraq each month. Also was reported were the classic remarks of Vice President Cheney “It may not be popular with the public, but it doesn’t matter in the sense that we have to continue the mission and do what we think is right”. Whatever happened to government of the people, by the people and for the people? If Kerry is God’s gift to the republicans, surely Cheney must be as such to the Democrats. If ever there was a pointer that democracy is out of control in the States this must be it. As Martin Fox said in an article in the Financial Revue “The American people were not stupid in turning against the Vietnam war. They were angered by the mendacity and failure of their leaders, just as they are today.”
But to say that the people of the US are now aware they have been lied to doesn’t necessarily mean the position will change with the coming elections. It may look as if the President may lose control of the Senate and Congress but never under estimate the weakness in the American democracy – it is dependent on the vote of 80 million Christian fundamentalists. No President can be elected without their vote. Karl Rove, known as Bush’s brain, tumbled to this many years ago. If you want some idea of what I mean by Christian fundamentalists go and see Andrew Denton’s new film “God on my Side”. There are 80 million people who believe God is on the side of the President and on the side of the US.
So this is a summary of the situation in Iraq. It is a situation moving closer and closer to chaos. The dream of democracy has turned into a nightmare
Was this foreseeable?
William Caldwell, the top US General in Iraq recently said “I don’t think anyone could have anticipated the sectarian violence”. Such a statement is laughable. Blind Freddie could see it. It could be seen by simpletons like myself. As the Americans entered into Baghdad I wrote in my journal “Good morning Vietnam. Good evening Palestine – suicide bombers and all”. It was predicted by Bush the Father. In his memoirs he stated his reasons for not going on to Baghdad in the Gulf War of 1991: “We would have been forced to occupy Baghdad and in effect rule Iraq. Had we gone the invasion route the US could conceivably still be an occupying power in a bitterly hostile land”.
Such is precisely the situation today. The US is an occupying power in a bitterly hostile land. In asserting that the sectarian violence could not be foreseen General Caldwell simply shows he knows nothing of Iraq. During the invasion we had a scale of the chances of us getting out alive and the greatest factor influencing the scale was the simmering sectarian violence. If that broke out we recognised that we had almost no chance at all.
The sectarian element has been there ever since Iraq was created. Iraq was created by the Brits after the defeat of Turkey in the first World War. They cobbled together three former disparate provinces of the Turkish Islamic Empire and called it Iraq. It was called “Winston’s Folly” – another of his follies being that of Gallipoli. The historians have been unsparing in their portrayal of the incompetence, arrogance and ignorance that Churchill brought to bear on the Iraq situation . Who said history doesn’t repeat itself?
The Brits tried to establish a democracy in a tribal society of Sheiks and patronage somewhat similar to the feudal days in England where each Lord had his own little army. The Brits eventually gave up on Iraq. Why? The historians are unanimous in their conclusion. It was costing too much – an interesting observation in that the last figure I heard concerning Iraq was that it is costing $8 billion a month
The strong sectarian differences which have always been there have been responsible for the “Strong Man” political philosophy that dominates the country.
I went back to Iraq six months after Bush in fancy dress made his ridiculous speech on the aircraft carrier and I was astounded to find photos of Saddam popping up and people saying “Who will be our strong man now?” Who will hold us together? – much the same expression as when Tito was the strong man of Yugoslavia and it collapsed into sectarian violence when he died.
What is the central point at issue in Iraq.
It is that violence doesn’t work. To use violence to end violence just doesn’t make sense. It is irrational. It doesn’t work. One of the most significant events of our time occurred last year and it was hardly noticed. The IRA decided against violence as a tool to achieve their purposes. After ninety years of terrorism they recognised that violence is dysfunctional as a political instrument. It doesn’t work. Violence is not only inherently wrong, it is inherently ineffective. This is why Jesus says “put away your sword” “love your enemies”
Some people say that war was the only way Saddam could be removed. I beg to differ. There are now many models in place where tyrants were disposed of without war. Marcos in the Phillipines, Ceausescu in Rumania, Suharto in Indonesia, and so on – and I thank God that we didn’t listen to the hawks who wanted us to attack Russia during the cold war. In 1983 we came within a whisper of nuclear war with Russia when listening to those who said it was the only way the Russia could be changed. The position has changed – and it wasn’t by war!
What do you then do with people like Saddam? First of all, you don’t support them. As an Iraqi friend of mine says “We could have got rid of Saddam half a dozen times if you hadn’t supported him.” The second thing you do is to keep your eye on the big picture as over and against self centred nationalism. The truth will eventually out. Empires rise and fall. A great amount of suffering occurs while this is happening but hopefully we learn something by it – although I am starting to have doubts about this. Today, for example, we are supporting the military dictatorship of Pakistan’s Musharraf just as we supported Saddam. It seems that tyrants are OK providing they are our tyrants and can be used by us. This is a recipe for disaster. Watch this space for future developments in Pakistan. This is something of what I mean by keeping one’s eye on the big picture. It is what Jesus was on about with what he termed the Kingdom of God – the world as God wants it to be
Now to the issue of the day as far as Iraq is concerned. Should we “stay the course” in Iraq or should we “cut and run” as we did at Gallipoli and Vietnam.
There are many views on this subject and some of them are quite simplistic as is the view of a Don Davey in a letter in the Australian
“The majority of the Iraqi people want a democracy and its our duty to finish the job”
The problem here is they also want us to leave – a not insignificant factor when you are thinking democratically. That they want us to leave is quite clear from three recent polls in Iraq.
One is by an Iraqi firm which says that 80% of Iraqis want an immediate withdrawal
One is by the US State Department which says that 65% of Iraqis favour an immediate withdrawal
And the third is by the University of Maryland which says that 71% of Iraqis want a withdrawal within 12 months.
And the reason given? A very practical one. The Americans are achieving nothing. In other words, it isn’t working. The cry of the Iraqis is “Will someone please explain how the presence of US troops makes our lives better?” That is the crucial question and I do not hear any real answers.
The health system is in ruins with 15,000 of Iraqis 30,000 doctors having left the country and the hospitals are not coping. The death squads of the war lords roam at will 70 people a day are being killed in sectarian violence.
What should happen? I am of the opinion that they should withdraw. It won’t help the situation but it will not, in the top British General’s words “exacerbate the situation”.
What will happen if the US forces withdraw?
I have no crystal ball. Division will probably occur unless a strong man appears. Bush has said that he will not let Iraq be split. The British Foreign Secretary is far more realistic and says that it will probably split. She said the other day that “it had been over optimistic to imagine that in three years Iraq would have a democracy like Britains which had taken hundred’s of years to develop”
The problem with division is, of course,
(1) That the oil isn’t evenly distributed
(2) It raises new political affiliations with the Shia part to Iran, Sunni part to Saudi Arabia or Syria, and the Kurds to a new state bedevilled by infighting which has always been the problem with the Kurds.
I finish with three quotes.
The first is from Ehud Barak, the most decorated Israeli General and former army Chief of Staff
“There is no way to win an occupation – the only issue is choosing the size of your humiliation.”
The second is from a letter which appeared in the paper last week. I have no idea who the guy is but his insight is profound.
The true scale of the Iraq disaster is not being understood by those who sit on one side or other of the debate. The true scale of the catastrophe is only understood by those who acknowledge that both the “cut and runners” and the “stay the coursers” are right.
To stay will further inflame the situation and to leave will hand victory to the Islamic extremists
The US, incompetently assisted by Britain and Australia, has gambled its enormous military might and has lost. When this defeat is considered alongside the loss in Vietnam it is difficult not to conclude that that the US has been defanged. It now seems that the US will be reduced to asking its enemies, Iran and Syria, to clear up the mess or at the very least it will run away and leave them to fill the vacuum.
The world has changed forever. The war had neither moral legitimacy nor any strategic value.
There are some things in the letter with which I differ. I don’t think the US has been defanged. It has the greatest supply of nuclear weapons and used them more often and greater effect than any nation on earth. It is still developing nuclear weapons notwithstanding its hypocritical call for other countries to desist. But with the general substance of the letter I wholeheartedly agree. This was a war that should never have happened. It was a war different to any other we have fought in that we were the aggressor. The world indeed has changed forever through a war that had neither moral legitimacy or strategic value.
The third quote is from someone whose name rings a bell. It is under the name of H. James and somewhere I can remember being impressed by a Heather James. She presents the big picture in a very simple way and her last sentence is the one that really strikes home.
Back in 2003 we were being told by this Government that sanctions against Saddam Hussein weren’t working and that due to his stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction, the only solution was an invasion of Iraq.
More than three years on our greatest fears have been realised. Thousands of innocent Iraqis are dead and Iraq is rapidly descending into civil war and lawlessness.. No WMD have been found and billions have been spent propping the Iraqi government and trying to maintain the appearance of progress and success in Iraq. And to top it off our own AWB aolong with compliant government officials were in fact funnelling cash to Saddam.
The Iraq experience has been a disaster on a number of levels, I am angry that so many people have died. And I’m angry that this Government, and in particular Prime Minister John Howard, seems to have learned nothing from Iraq, taking no responsibility for what has been one of the poorest decisions in our history.
The Government, through its continued arrogance and lack of accountability has contributed to a shameful, sad and destructive act for which we are all responsible.
I couldn’t have said it better myself!
