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The impediment for political settlement in Afghanistan

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July 15, 2010

During Afghanistan’s 2009 presidential election, Hamid Karzai promised to call a jirga to encourage peace and political settlement for Afghanistan’s future. Jirga is a Pashto term for a tribal assembly of elders which makes decisions by consensus. For centuries, Afghans have used jirgas to resolve differences and tribal conflicts. In the past, Afghans organized jirgas for their own affairs that were free of foreign interference and demands. This time, the National Consultative Peace Jirga (NCPJ) that Hamid Karzai convened on June 2nd to June 4th, 2010, has been criticized as a waste of time for not following normal tribal structure and, more importantly, because the central government was influenced by foreign support.

President Hamid Karzai hosted the three-day Peace Jirga in Kabul for discussing the terms by which tribal leaders, the Taliban and the government could envision an end to the ongoing war. Top Taliban leaders boycotted the Jirga because they did not trust the foreign influence over the Afghan government. Nevertheless, the Jirga moved forward with the following terms: NATO forces are to end house searches and aerial bombings; the Karzai government and international forces are to assure the safety of Taliban members; and Taliban prisoners in American and Afghan custody are to be released. Karzai supported the Jirga’s proposal for amnesty for Taliban members and removal of their names from the United Nation’s black list. The gathering ended with the agreement that the Afghan government must pursue talks with the Taliban. Many Afghan officials believe the Peace Jirga will not bear fruit unless top Taliban leaders are included in all levels of negotiation.

Since 2001, the U.S. government has persistently discarded proposals made to hold any dialogues with the Taliban for a political settlement. Instead, the Bush and Obama administrations chose a military solution to the Afghan problems. However, some U.S. officials have started to realize that this war will not come to an end with military force. Richard Holbrooke, the U.S. special envoy to Pakistan and Afghanistan says “the continuing Afghan war will not end in a military triumph,” as the U.S. faces increasing casualties amongst its troops. He also indicated that Washington comprehends that a political settlement in Afghanistan will ultimately be necessary to bring the war to an end, saying, “This war is not going to end on the deck of a battleship like World War II.” Holbrooke believes that the political settlement should entail the participation of the Taliban members in the Afghan government. He pointed out, however, that the U.S. will not allow any settlement with al-Qaeda.

Taliban groups have not totally excluded talks as an option, but they have so far rejected joining any negotiations until all coalition forces leave the country. The problem is that in the most recent Jirga, President Karzai informed the delegates at the outset; “There is no mention of a key Taliban demand that NATO troops leave Afghanistan,” when in fact that was one of the Taliban’s key demands. Ironically, the Jirga took place as US and NATO military planners were preparing to escalate an offensive against the Taliban in Kandahar province. The military surge was an added impediment which undermined the already controversial Jirga process and any hope for legitimate peace talks in the future. Meanwhile, the rising number of Afghan civilian casualties caused by mistaken NATO attacks during the operation is blocking any justification for the continued U.S. and NATO presence.

The Jirga was promoted as the beginning of a new chapter in Afghanistan’s political life, advocating peace and bringing the country together. But the people of Afghanistan should have the right to choose the political leadership that they know and understand: Afghan leadership that is free of the influence of foreign military intervention. An understanding that the Taliban should be included in negotiations is one important step toward any peaceful solution. Even Hamid Karzai, who has subordinated himself to U.S. pressure, advocates negotiation with Taliban groups. But the continued presence of foreign troops and military offensives will derail a political settlement, whether sought through the jirga process or any other form of negotiation.